What is it?
A forecast can be generated in many different ways, from simple projection of a trend, to AI-driven pattern analysis, to complex and detailed modelling of the individual drivers of sales.
All of these have a role.
Our forecasts and ongoing performance monitoring against them are designed to answer simple questions: Where will we be if things carry on as they are? What is likely to happen if we pull an advertising or price lever? Will we hit a target with our current plan?
When is it used?
- Setting targets
- Understanding whether current performance is enough to hit a target
- Understanding the likely impacts of using price, promotion and advertising levers
- Simulating market shocks, e.g. a new competitor or a major change to share of voice
Why Sequence?
- We embrace forecasting as the ultimate purpose of our modelling, but we don’t pretend it’s easy
- We don’t rely only on marketing mix models. MMM is not designed for forecasting
- We track ongoing performance against forecasts, using MMM and customer propensity modelling to diagnose why performance is or is not on target
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